Wicked weapon of murderous Moscow: Retrocausality

Post hoc, ergo propter hoc is an old and dreary logical fallacy. To claim, with little or no direct evidence, that something happened after something else, hence because of that something else ("I was taken ill after she looked at me that way, BURN THE WITCH"), means nowadays to expose yourself as a manipulator. How about something new and shiny to replace that rusty monstrosity? We can call it praeter hoc, ergo propter hoc. A happened before B, hence because of B.

Doesn't make sense? Causation doesn't work backwards except in science fiction?

Welcome back to Propaganda 2.0, the smart solution for idiot-mode journalism. No tricks, just open and honest self-contradiction. In this issue, Britain's The Independent is accusing Russia of someting even Yakov Smirnoff would've hardly thought possible.

30,000 homeless as a chaotic conflict intensifies

Putin condemns 'genocide' as eyewitnesses claim South Ossetia's capital is destroyed. Moscow missiles kill dozens in Georgia's frontline city as peace effort gets under way

[Those "Moscow missiles" border on immaculate Propaganda 1.0. Much like an indignant Communist going "Pentagon" this, "Washington" that all the time, the author or editor was so desperate to throw in a trigger name – the regular repetition of "Moscow" and "Kremlin" serves, of course, to remind the reader of the tight grip of Russian authoritarianism on the country – that they made it sound as if the were fired straight from the Tsar Cannon. But let's not nit-pick, something big is coming. – Ed.]

As many as 2,000 people may have been killed and 30,000 made homeless as the chaotic conflict between Georgian and Russian forces in the pro-Moscow enclave of South Ossetia entered its second bloody day.

[...]

The casualty tolls were also much confused. Russia's figure of 2,000 dead and 30,000 homeless was largely supported by South Ossetian leaders, who said that about 1,400 had died there since Friday. Georgia said only 129 people had been killed, but this is believed to refer only to the death toll for the town of Gori. UN officials put the number of refugees from South Ossetia at between 2,400 and 5,000.

The conflict began when Russian troops poured into South Ossetia on Friday, hours after Georgia launched an offensive aimed at restoring control over the separatist province.

Now that I think of it, no, this isn't pure 2.0 by far. This is Propaganda 1.4 or something. -0.1 for those "Moscow missiles", -0.5 for not going all the way and contradicting themselves in plain sight. There's an important number they do shy away from mentioning.

How many hours is "hours after", one wonders? Three? Five? Maybe even eight?

The answer is fifteen. Check this detailed timeline of Friday, August 8 (in Russian or via machine translation). Note the entries (it's bottom to top) for 0:06, 14:22, 15:06 and 16:14.

FIFTEEN BLOODY HOURS of all-out Georgian shooting and shelling before the Russians went in. And what happened next? "The conflict began."

The conflict began.

Inappropriately except for reflecting my feelings, this reminds me of a crude joke which starts with a string of very hard and elaborate obscenities and continues, "– said Lieutenant Rzhevsky, and began to swear."

What conflict began? Let's take a jigsaw of quotes and put it together. The "chaotic conflict between Georgian and Russian forces", in which "[a]s many as 2,000 people may have been killed" "since Friday", which is "Russia's figure" "largely supported by South Ossetian leaders".

Ay, since Friday. The early hours of Friday. The Russian/S.O. figure refers, rather obviously, to the death toll from the moment the Georgians began to attack.

In other words, the conflict between Georgia and Russia claimed the lives of 2,000 people, some of whom (possibly even most of whom) had perished before that conflict began.

It's like saying a patient died from the chaotic conflict between cancer and chemotherapy. Implying both share the blame kind of equally. Russia became involved because people were dying. The Independent tried to pull a Russian reversal on that. Classy.